Flash Notes

GDP: 2017 +2.8%; 2018 +2.2% (before: 2.5% and 1.8%)

Evidence of economic recovery, which began in mid-2016, is now stronger and justify an upward revision for 2017 GDP to 2.8% (2.5% previous) and 2.2% next year (1.8% before). Despite of some negative risks associated with the scenario due to external economies and international financial markets, we believe that risks are now more balanced. If the economy behaves as forecasted, national wealth will reach its record high (prior financial crisis) in middle 2018 with sustained growth in exports, recovery in capex (although from minima levels) and moderate recovery in private consumption. Cyclical factors and expansionary policies through interest rates and more neutral fiscal policy as well as structural factors feed this economic recovery which is seen to be stronger
than expected by many economic analysts triggering economic forecasts for Portugal to be revised upwards.