Daily Report

4 de Outubro de 2019
Daily Report 04.10.2019
  • Investor expectations of easier U.S. monetary policy pushed down sovereign yields and fueled an across-the-board advance in stock markets. The market-implied probability of a 25bp cut in October rose to 85% (43% last Friday) after the release of indicators suggesting that the non-manufacturing side of the economy is also decelerating.
  • In particular, the U.S. ISM non-manufacturing declined markedly in September (52.6 points, down from 56.4 in August). This followed releases showing weak manufacturing indicators earlier in the week.
  • On the trade front, the U.S. announced new 10%-25% tariffs on European products starting Oct. 18. On Tuesday, the WTO allowed the U.S. to impose tariffs on as much as $7.5bn of EU exports in retaliation for illegal aid to Airbus.
  • Today the focus will be on the release of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics employment report for September as well as on a speech Fed Chairman Powell is scheduled to deliver a few hours after the release of employment figures.