Markets were mixed in yesterday's session. Global stock markets advanced and U.S. sovereign yields nudged down as the U.S.CPI report did not depress investor expectations about Fed cuts. In Europe, the euro strengthened on the back of a hawkishreading of the ECB's meeting, German sovereign yields nudged up but peripheral spreads ticked down.
The ECB left rates unchanged, as widely expected, and gave no forward guidance as it reiterated that it will not precommit toany particular rate path and will instead stick to a "meeting by meeting, data dependent" approach. Investors made ahawkish reading of the meeting and market odds of a 25bp rate cut in 2026 declined by ca. 10pp.
U.S. headline CPI inflation accelerated to 0.4% mom and 2.9% yoy in August (0.2% mom and 2.7% in July) while core inflationremained unchanged at 0.3% mom and 3.1% yoy. Tariff exposed products saw upward price pressures. Market odds for Fedcuts remained strongly anchored (100% probability of a September cut and a total of 150bp in cuts by early 2027).
BANCO BPI, S.A., com sede na Avenida da Boavista, 1117, 4100-129 Porto; Capital Social: € 1 293 063 324,98; matriculada na CRC Porto sob o número de matrícula PTIRNMJ 501 214 534, como o número de identificação fiscal 501 214 534. Intermediário financeiro registado na CMVM com o n° 300 e no Banco de Portugal sob o código n° 10. Agente de Seguros n.º 419527591, registado junto da Autoridade de Supervisão de Seguros e Fundos de Pensões em 21/01/2019, e autorizado a exercer atividade nos Ramos de Seguro Vida e Não Vida.