Investors traded with caution in the first session of the week. Looming trade negotiation deadlines and the EU's possibleretaliatory measures triggered safe haven flows and a rally in global bonds, with sharp declines in 10 year euro areasovereign yields and narrower peripheral spreads. Gold rose and the EUR strengthened towards $1.17.
In stock markets, U.S. equities climbed higher but lost steam by the end of the session, with traders eyeing a busy earningsweek. European indices were mixed. In Japan, Tokyo's Stock Exchange was closed for Marine Day but the JPY strengthened asinvestors digested the outcome of Sunday's upper house election (which saw the governing coalition lose its control).
Market expectations for Fed and ECB interest rates were largely unchanged yesterday. Market implied probabilities of a 25bp ECB cut were 2% for July, 48% for September and 99% for December. Investors saw a 3% probability of a Fed cut in July whileraising the odds to 60% for September. Today the ECB will release its Q2 / Q3 2025 Bank Lending Survey.
BANCO BPI, S.A., com sede na Avenida da Boavista, 1117, 4100-129 Porto; Capital Social: € 1 293 063 324,98; matriculada na CRC Porto sob o número de matrícula PTIRNMJ 501 214 534, como o número de identificação fiscal 501 214 534. Intermediário financeiro registado na CMVM com o n° 300 e no Banco de Portugal sob o código n° 10. Agente de Seguros n.º 419527591, registado junto da Autoridade de Supervisão de Seguros e Fundos de Pensões em 21/01/2019, e autorizado a exercer atividade nos Ramos de Seguro Vida e Não Vida.