Flash Notes

15 de Fevereiro de 2022
Monthly Report | Economic and Financial Market Outlook | February 2022

The recovery of the global economy continues to face multiple challenges which, for now, it is managing to overcome thanks to the stimulus provided by the robust expansionary economic policies that have been deployed, the good response of the vaccines to the successive mutations of the virus and the continuous adaptation of the decisions taken by economic agents in response to such a complex scenario. As the IMF recently reminded us in the latest revision of its Economic Outlook, the business cycle will continue to face significant challenges in the medium term, as the unexpected rise in inflation and the emergence of bottlenecks in much of the production chain coincide with widespread high levels of debt, the shift in monetary policy in a number of countries and the uncertainty associated with the evolution of the pandemic. According to the Washington-based institution, the shock generated last year by the mismatch between global supply and demand alone reduced growth by 0.5 pps and raised inflation by 1 pps. Yet despite this, global economic activity grew by 5.9% in 2021 and could advance at rates exceeding 4% in 2022. Therefore, the revival continues to show high resilience and, above all, it is being accompanied by signs of strength in the labour market, as the latest employment data in countries such as Spain are demonstrating.