Flash Notes

15 de Maio de 2023
Monthly Report | Economic and Financial Market Outlook | February 2023
  • Like other European economies, the Portuguese economy continues to face an adverse environment marked by geopolitical uncertainty, high inflation and rising interest rates, all of which limits its capacity for growth. Nonetheless, over recent months Portugal has been able to weather this adversity better than expected. Moreover, the recent moderation in energy prices suggests that the recovery may be somewhat more dynamic than initially expected.
  • All this leads us to slightly improve the economic scenario forecast for this year, with GDP growth now at 1.0%, 0.5 p.p. above the previous projection, as explained in more detail in the article «The keys to the macro scenario in Portugal » in this issue. On the other hand, we put inflation at 5.5%, slightly below the 5.8% previously forecast. Uncertainty remains very high and there are many factors that could change the course of the economy in the coming months, both negatively and positively. Among these, three stand out: The evolution of energy prices, the resilience of the labour market, and the implementation of the European NGEU funds.