Flash Notes

18 de January de 2022
Monthly Report | Economic and Financial Market Outlook | January 2022

At the beginning of the new year, the global economy is once again facing the effects of a new mutation of the virus. Yet again, restrictions on certain activities and lockdowns are threatening to have a direct impact on growth, in addition to the indirect impact through the deterioration of expectations. Nevertheless, just as the virus appears to be becoming less virulent with each new wave, the potential effects on economic activity are also gradually decreasing. The fact that economic agents are adapting their decisions to the new reality marked by the coronavirus, the extensive coverage provided by the vaccines, the development of specific antivirals to combat the effects of COVID-19 and the maintenance of the firepower of the economic policy instruments deployed in the spring of 2020 suggest that, this time, the damage to economic activity can be minimised. Also, while the economic forecasts for Q1 2022 will need to be revised downwards, Omicron is unlikely to significantly alter the underlying trend in the business cycle, and a rebound effect can be expected from the spring onwards.