Flash Notes

11 de Julho de 2023
Monthly Report | Economic and Financial Market Outlook | June 2023

Good news on several fronts in Portugal

The Portuguese economy has performed better than expected. Not only did it avoid periods of contraction but also recorded healthy growth, mainly supported by the external sector, with growth in employment and a reduction in structural imbalances. Our growth forecast for GDP in 2023 is now 2.5%, up from 1% at the start of the year. The fall in the price of energy on international markets is one of the factors behind this performance, as well as the strength of tourism and the support of surplus savings during the pandemic. But it is still a remarkable outcome, especially in such a challenging context, after an increase of more than 3 percentage points in interest rates and with high inflation, weighing on the cost of living of families. Just as remarkable is that the economy is already more than 4% above pre-covid levels, one of the best performances in the EMU.