Flash Notes

11 de Agosto de 2025
Portugal Macroeconomic and financial outlook | August 2025
  • GDP increased 0.6% qoq in Q2 2025 (-0.4% in Q1), in line with BPI Research forecasts; on a year-on-year basis, growth reached 1.9% yoy (1.7% in Q1). According to the statistical office, the acceleration on the quarterly growth reflects the increase of private consumption and the less negative contribution of net external demand. We foresee GDP to advance 1.6% in 2025.
  • Inflation rises for the fourth consecutive month. The headline inflation rose 2.6% yoy in July and grew 2.4% in core index.
  • Labor market surprises positively in Q2 2025, with employment reaching new maximums. The employed population increased 2.9% yoy (the number of employed population represents the maximum since the beginning of the historical series, which started in 2011), a pace not seen since 2017 (excluding the pandemic period) and the unemployment rate fell to 5.9%, minus 0.7 p.p. compared to Q1. 
  • Execution of RRP (Recovery and Resilience Plan) appears to be accelerating but is still below desired levels. Of the 22.2 billion euros to be implemented by 2026, only 39% of this amount has been paid to beneficiaries. A faster implementation of the funds is expected from now on. The remainder (13.6 billion euros) corresponds to 5% of national annual GDP.