Flash Notes

10 de Dezembro de 2025
Portugal Macroeconomic and financial outlook | December 2025
  • The detailed release confirmed that Q3 GDP rose 0,8% qoq and 2,4% yoy, driven by strong domestic demand, mainly private consumption and GFCF in transport equipment. This along with the upward revision of historic series last September, led us to update our forecast for 2025 annual growth to 1,8%. For 2026 we kept annual forecast of 2,0%, as the economy is expected to benefit from a set of tailwinds, such as NGEU funds, fiscal policy and easing financial conditions. Still, perspectives for the labour market suggest that private consumption will continue resilient. Risks for the scenario are balanced.