Flash Notes

14 de Julho de 2025
Portugal Macroeconomic and financial outlook | July 2025
  • The Bank of Portugal updated its macroeconomic scenario last June, and foresees GDP to advance 1.6% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026, respectively 7 tenth less and 1 tenth more than in the March scenario.
  • The significant downward revision of GDP growth in 2025 reflects the unanticipated activity contraction in Q1, motivated by the households' reaction to the reduction in real disposable income, leading to a decrease in private consumption (-1.2%, which was a normalization after the 2.8% increase in 4rd quarter), and to the 1.8 p.p. reduction in GFCF driven by the environment of greater uncertainty.
  • Projections for external accounts – current and capital balances – worsened compared to March, anticipating a surplus of 3.9% of GDP in 2025, 0.6 p.p. less than in March, with a reduction of 8 tenths in the balance of goods and services. Regarding exports, there was a worsening compared to the previous scenario (-1.0 p.p.), despite the increase in trade transactions in anticipation of increases in US tariffs. On the other hand, projection for imports was revised upwards, reflecting a replenishment of inventories.
  • Trade tensions and increased uncertainty have had a visible impact on Portugal's economic activity this year; however the easing of financial conditions, the firmness of the labor market and the expected accelerated implementation of EU funds, will be the drivers for improvements in national GDP growth in 2026.