Flash Notes

Strong growth in Q1 2023 was confirmed

• Early Q2 data shows mixed signs with sentiment deteriorating on the supply side, but improving among consumers; available hard indicators suggest that the economy will continue to expand, but at a slower pace. Deceleration will reflect the impact of higher financing costs and persistent inflation in families’ and corporates’ spending and investment decisions.
• Inflation decelerated again in May to 4,0% yoy, from 5,7% and the core inflation declined to 5,5%, from 6,6% in April. The predominant sentiment continues to be that the disinflationary process will be very gradual, reflecting the contagion of high energy prices to other products. Our forecast for 2023 was downward revised to 5,0%, from 5,5%.