Flash Notes

15 de Maio de 2023
Portugal Macroeconomic and financial outlook | May 2023

Growth in Q1 23 far exceeded expectations

The flash release for Q1 showed GDP advancing 1,6% qoq and 2,5% yoy, meaning that it will be unavoidable to revise our annual forecast up (1%). Indeed, in the absence of an adverse chock, this performance points to an annual growth above 2% and indicates that the Portuguese economy stands 4,3% above the pre-pandemic level. Early Q2 data shows that confidence continues to improve; nevertheless, we expect a deceleration going forward, due to the impact of higher financing costs and persistent inflation in families’ and corporates’ spending and investment decisions.