Flash Notes

9 de Maio de 2025
Portugal Macroeconomic and financial outlook | May 2025
  • GDP fell 0.5% qoq, an unexpected result, probably due to one-off factors, including a higher-than-expected fall in private consumption, correcting the huge growth in Q4 and an increase of imports, correcting also the decline seen in the previous quarter. We consider that the last two quarters must be seen together, with average growth in Q4 24 and Q1 25 of 0,45%, diluting the mentioned one-off effects. On a year-on-year basis GDP advanced 1,6%, with strong impact on the annual figure. This data has a strong carryover effect on growth in 2025, that should imply a downward revision of our forecast for annual GDP in 2025 to a level below 2%; however, activity is expected to remain resilient, supported by strong labour market, lower financing costs and good prospects for investment also supported by NG EU funds. And debt is low both in the private and public sector (below 95% of GDP), paving the way to more robust path ahead.