Flash Notes

9 de Outubro de 2025
Portugal Macroeconomic and financial outlook | October 2025

INE revised the GDP series, bringing annual growth in 2023 and 2024 to 3.1% and 2.1%, respectively. Revision impacted the variation of the GDP in the H1, to 0.6% qoq from 0.5% previously reported and also implied an upward revision of the accumulated growth since Q4 2019 to 9.7%, + 7 tenths than the previously estimated. BPI’s Research team decided to keep unchanged its forecasts for 2025 at 1.6%, despite acknowledging that it is a conservative view. Private consumption continues to be supported by a resilient labour market and income recovery, and investment should be stimulated by low interest rates and the implementation of European funds. We consider risks to growth slightly biased on the upside.