Flash Notes

9 de Abril de 2026
Portugal Macroeconomic and financial outlook | April 2026
  • The Middle East war continues to weigh on the global economic outlook, although the recent fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran has reduced the likelihood of the most adverse scenarios. Markets are pricing in a relatively swift resolution and a largely transitory shock. However, uncertainty remains high while energy prices are likely to stay above early‑year expectations, reflecting instability in flows through the Strait of Hormuz and damage to energy infrastructure that will take time to fully recover. In the euro area, markets have shifted towards pricing two rate hikes in 2026, compared with a pre-conflict situation  in which no hikes were contemplated.
  • The Portuguese economy faces the current context of geopolitical uncertainty from a position of relative strength. This reflects its resilient recent performance and several factors that should continue to support the internal demand (such as a strong financial situation, the ongoing deployment of NGEU funds, healthy balance sheets in the private and public sector and high households’ savings rate). The exposure of Portugal to the energy imports that pass through the Strait of Hormuz is relatively small: around 7% for oil and less than 1% for natural gas. However, it is important to have in mind that our current forecast scenario was prepared before the beginning of the Middle East conflict, which has significantly increased downside risks to growth and upward risks to inflation. Our next scenario update is scheduled for May.