Flash Notes

GDP posted an annual growth of 2,3% in 2023

• In Q4, GDP grew 0,8% qoq, putting annual growth in 2023 at 2,3%, 0.1 p.p. below the BPI’s research forecast. According to INE, domestic demand accelerated and the contribute of foreign demand become less negative. 2024 will be a year with a positive trend. 1H24 will still be conditioned by the impact of high financing costs, but as the easing cycle by the ECB begins, an acceleration of activity is expected. More robust balance-sheets in the Public sector, companies and households (low debt levels), a still robust labor market, the acceleration of reforms and the PRR execution should also be key to growth dynamics in the next couple of years. All in all, we see the economy to expand a little more than 1,5% in 2024 and probably accelerate higher than 2% in the following years.