Flash Notes

13 de Julho de 2026
Portugal Macroeconomic and financial outlook | July 2026
  • Energy prices corrected rapidly after the mid-June agreement between Iran and the US was announced, returning close to pre-conflict levels. However, renewed tensions and incidents in the Strait of Hormuz in July underline that uncertainty remains elevated and the situation remains fragile.
  • Activity indicators for the Portuguese economy show some signs of dynamism in Q2 2026. indicators related to private consumption kept robust, with retail sales increasing by 4.2% in the first two months of the quarter and car sales rising by 11.8% during the quarter (compared with 10.1% in Q1). The strength of consumption data is being supported by the favourable performance of the labour market, which continues to surprise on the upside.
  • In June Global CPI declined slightly to 3.2% (3.3% in May). Core inflation gained momentum, rising to 2.5% (from 2.2% in May), possibly reflecting some lagged effects of the energy shock. Energy prices decelerated sharply to 9.1% year-on-year (from 13.1% in May).