Flash Notes

15 de Junho de 2026
Portugal Macroeconomic and financial outlook | June 2026
  • GDP stagnated in Q1 and grew 2.3% yoy. Domestic activity remained robust, benefiting from a rebound on GFCF. External demand subtracted 1.6 p.p. from qoq growth and 1.9 p.p. from yoy growth, due to the acceleration of imports, driven by the behavior of GFCF, a component with a high import content. Going forward, the impact of the Middle East conflict will weigh on growth, reflecting higher uncertainty at international level, rising energy prices, and expectations of tightening financing conditions. Nevertheless, domestic activity is expected to remain dynamic, supported by the resilience of the labor market and the perspective that investment will be boosted by the end of the RRP (PRR). External demand will constrain growth, as imports are expected to remain strong, driven by investment expansion, while exports will keep moderate, reflecting the weakening activity in key trading partners. All in all, we foresee economy growing 1.8% in 2026, less 0.3 p.p. than anticipated in February, by incorporation of Q1 data and signs that growth in Q2 will be more moderate than expected at the beginning of the year.
  • The strongest impact of the Middle East crisis will be felt in the inflation rate. Indeed, signs of this deterioration are already evident, with year-on-year inflation in May remaining above 3% (3.3%), reflecting the increase in energy prices to 13.2% yoy vs 11.7% in April. This performance, together with the persistence of high Brent oil and gas prices and possible spillovers to other prices, has led to an upward revision of the inflation forecast for 2026 to 2.9%, eight tenths higher than expected in February.