Flash Notes

12 de Março de 2026
Portugal Macroeconomic and financial outlook | March 2026
  • Global economic uncertainty has risen after the joint U.S.-Israeli intervention in Iran. Oil and gas prices reacted sharply to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz (through which 20% of global crude and gas flows). Markets initially did not expect a prolonged or highly disruptive conflict, but uncertainty about its duration remains high, triggering volatility. In the euro area, market expectations have started pricing the possibility of ECB hikes by the end of 2026.
  • The Portuguese economy faces the current context of geopolitical uncertainty from a position of relative strength. This reflects its resilient recent performance and several factors that should continue to support the internal demand (such as a strong financial situation, the ongoing deployment of NGEU funds, healthy balance sheets in the private and public sector and high households’ savings rate). The exposure of Portugal to the energy imports that pass through the Strait of Hormuz is relatively small: around 7% for oil and less than 1% for natural gas. Our current forecast scenario was prepared before the start of the Middle East was, which has significantly increased downside risks.