Flash Notes

13 de Maio de 2026
Portugal Macroeconomic and financial outlook | May 2026
  • Real GDP stagnated in 1T 2026 (0.0% growth). The contribution of domestic demand was positive, benefiting from the acceleration of investment, while private consumption should have slowed down. The conflict in the Middle East is expected to negatively impact households’ disposable income and increase financing costs, which puts downside risks to our current forecast for real GDP growth in 2026 (2.1%).
  • Inflation accelerated in April to 3.4% and the core index rose to 2.2%. This hike on inflation was mostly driven by an increase in energy prices, which performance puts considerable upside risks to our forecast (2.1% for 2026, forecasted in February), which will be reviewed this month.
  • The Portuguese economy faces the current context of geopolitical uncertainty from a position of relative strength. This reflects its resilient recent performance and several factors that should continue to support the internal demand (such as a strong financial situation, the ongoing deployment of NGEU funds, healthy balance sheets in the private and public sector and high households’ savings rate). The exposure of Portugal to the energy imports that pass through the Strait of Hormuz is relatively small: around 7% for oil and less than 1% for natural gas. However, it is important to have in mind that our current forecast scenario was prepared before the beginning of the Middle East conflict, which has increased downside risks to growth and upward risks to inflation. Our next scenario update is scheduled for this month.