Flash Notes

10 de Novembro de 2026
Portugal Macroeconomic and financial outlook | November 2026
  • Higher-for-longer energy prices. Oil and gas futures remain above our forecasts, with the gap particularly pronounced for European gas, reflecting persistent geopolitical tensions and storage levels well below seasonal averages.
  • The ECB left the deposit rate unchanged at 2.50% in October but signaled a likely hike in December. We expect rates to reach 3.00% in spring 2027, in line with market expectations.
  • The most recent indicators are showing a moderation in activity and decreased or less pronounced confidence in most sectors. The economic climate and sentiment indicators presented lower figures in October compared to Q3, while the daily economic indicator and consumer confidence even decreased. Confidence in industry keeps negative and slower in construction and services.
  • Inflation stood at 3.8% (3.6% in September 2026). The core component just changed marginally: excluding the most volatile products – unprocessed food and energy – prices increased by 2.78% year-on-year (+0.06 p.p. compared to September). The acceleration of CPI in October was almost entirely explained by the increase in fuel prices.